Air Canada Trims 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Forecast to $2.4–2.7 Billion on Fuel Costs

Air Canada cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by roughly $500 million to between $2.4 billion and $2.7 billion, even as quarterly operating revenue reached a record near $7 billion. TradingView reported the guidance cut alongside the carrier's latest quarterly results.

Inside Air Canada's Guidance Cut

Air Canada is Canada's largest full-service flag carrier, flying domestic, transborder and international routes with a fleet that includes A321XLR and Boeing 787 aircraft. In the quarter, its fuel bill rose by more than $900 million year-over-year as prices hit $1.72 per litre. Because tickets are sold months ahead, management estimates it can recover only about 70% of those extra costs through fare increases.

The cost pressure pulled the carrier's operating margin down to 3.7% and turned free cash flow negative at $440 million during what the report describes as its seasonally strongest quarter. Air Canada also carries nearly $10.9 billion in long-term debt and lease liabilities. The report cites Canadian GDP growth stalling in recent months and headline inflation at 3.1%.

Air Canada's Earlier 2026 Results

Earlier results had pointed the other way, according to akta.pro company records. Air Canada posted $5.785 billion in Q1 2026 operating revenues, up 11.3% from $5.195 billion a year earlier, and record adjusted EBITDA of $623 million, up 61% year-over-year. Net cash flows from operating activities in the quarter were CAD 1.8 billion. The records also list a March 2024 post-IPO debt round of $1.6 billion.

Route Moves Before the Guidance Cut

On November 3, 2026, Portafolio.co reported that Air Canada will fly Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners from Bogotá in place of Airbus A330s, with eight weekly flights to Toronto and Montreal and plans to use the city as a connection hub with Avianca. The same day, CTech reported that Air Canada resumes direct Toronto-Tel Aviv flights on November 30, with December economy fares averaging $1,155, about 30% higher than a year earlier. On October 28, 2026, MarketScreener reported that Canada's Competition Bureau said proposed coordination between Air Canada and United Airlines on 10 routes would harm competition, in a report that will inform a public interest review by the Canadian government.

Air Canada's Next Route Launch

Air Canada is scheduled to begin a nonstop Montreal-Dublin route on May 2, 2027, using the Airbus A321XLR four times weekly, with flights taking over six hours.